When nobody in a market knows the right price, the winner is not the one who finds the right number — it’s the one who says a number first. That isn’t luck; it’s a direct consequence of how the human mind works.
We’re watching this live in advertising right now. The cost of AI infrastructure is a line item nobody has priced before; what a fair price for a token looks like, nobody knows — not even the holding companies. And right inside that window of uncertainty, an offer is making the rounds: “We’ll cover your entire AI bill — as long as seventy percent of your media budget runs through our inventory.” The number lands on the table at the start of the negotiation, before the other side has found a number of its own. The winner isn’t the one who calculated; it’s the one who spoke first.
The Anchor Trick
This has a name: anchoring bias. The effect Tversky and Kahneman described in 1974 shows that when the mind makes an estimate, it uses the first number placed in front of it — even if that number is entirely arbitrary — as a reference point. Every subsequent adjustment is made relative to that first anchor, not to the correct answer. In a price negotiation this becomes a merciless advantage: whoever puts the first number on the table has also set the boundaries of the discussion. The other side stops asking “what is the right price” and starts asking “how far can I move from this number.” The question changed, and they lost without noticing.
That’s why speaking early during uncertainty isn’t a fair way to win — but it is an effective one, and those who know it’s effective don’t hesitate to use it.
Staying silent during uncertainty is not a neutral stance; it’s handing the table to the other side.
Uncertainty’s Customer
The logic of waiting is understandable: “Let the market settle, let the right price emerge, then I’ll decide.” But markets don’t settle in a vacuum; they settle around whatever anchor someone threw first. What you’re waiting for as the “fair price” is, more often than not, the legitimized form of the number spoken earliest and most confidently. When a new cost item — a technology, a service, a risk — enters a market, there is no such thing yet as its “real” price; there is only the first number that got accepted. Everyone after negotiates against it, budgets against it, feels vindicated or wronged against it.
I sell intelligence; which means I quote my client a number in exchange for a solution. What I’ve learned is this: if I don’t say that number first, the anchor in my client’s mind reflects not my value but my competitor’s nerve. Whoever doesn’t know the value of their own work entrusts that value to whatever number someone else happens to say.
Throw Your Own Anchor
When I face a pricing uncertainty, I ask myself three things:
- Whatever this work actually costs me, do I know my own number before I hear the other side’s?
- If I stay silent, do I know who will fill that silence — and am I willing to live with their number?
- Do I have a reason I can defend behind the number I state, or am I only drawing strength from having spoken first?
The third question matters, because anchoring can be abused too: stating an unjustified number loudly is manipulation; stating a justified number early is clarity. The difference is whether there’s an account behind it you’re willing to stand on.
In the chain of thought, structure, solution, price is the solution’s final expression — but during uncertainty we forget that order and start waiting for the number before we’ve described the solution. Whoever enters the market without first thinking through and structuring their own number ends up accepting whatever number the market hands them instead. Uncertainty isn’t a threat; it’s a microphone waiting to see who speaks first. Pick it up.